Hit write-up

MSTR cap 160 hit

Wed Oct 7, 2026. Closed 153.36, 6.64 under the level.

← MSTR record · Every graded call

Cap160
Regular close153.36
Margin6.64 (4.1%)
ResultHit

Cap: close under is a hit. Close on the level is a push. Graded on the regular-session close.

The level

A cap is a price above the market where a large amount of options positioning sits. The idea is that this positioning can slow a move up there, so the test is simple: does the stock close under it? When it was posted at 08:44 ET, MSTR traded at 158.14, 1.2% below the cap. On the same map, the next level above was 165 and the next level below was 157.5. See the original post.

Into the close

Price never closed a 5-minute bar on the wrong side of the cap. Its closest approach was 3.05 away (156.95); the session range was 152.71 to 156.95. In the last hour price moved up 0.25, from 154.09 to 154.34.

Intraday, Oct 7
152.13154.24156.36158.47160.58Cap 1609:3012:004:00
Close vs level

The regular-session close was 153.36, 6.64 (4.15%) under the cap at 160. Under the rule (cap: close under is a hit), that is a hit.

Context that day

Crypto-linked stocks fell as Bitcoin slid about 4%, with 10-year Treasury yields near multi-decade highs. MSTR finished the day down 6.8%, while SPY was down 0.2%.

Education only, not advice. The same levels go to everyone. Past results don't predict future results.

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This week: 41 hits / N=46 · 5 misses · 0 pushes · graded on the regular-session close. Past results don't predict future results.