Miss write-up

PEP cap 125 missed

Thu Oct 8, 2026. Closed 128.62, 3.62 over the level.

← PEP record · Every graded call

Cap125
Regular close128.62
Missed by3.62 (2.9%)
ResultMiss

Cap: close under is a hit. Close on the level is a push. Graded on the regular-session close.

The level

A cap is a price above the market where a large amount of options positioning sits. The idea is that this positioning can slow a move up there, so the test is simple: does the stock close under it? When it was posted at 18:54 ET, PEP traded at 123.8, 1.0% below the cap. On the same map, the next level above was 132 and the next level below was 120. See the original post.

Into the close

Price traded through the cap during the session (first 5-minute close on the wrong side at 9:35 AM ET), with a low of 124.41 and a high of 128.62. In the last hour price moved down 1.10, from 127.07 to 125.97.

Intraday, Oct 8
124.07125.29126.52127.74128.96Cap 1259:3012:004:00
Close vs level

The regular-session close was 128.62, 3.62 (2.90%) above the cap at 125. Under the rule (cap: close under is a hit), that is a miss.

Context that day

PepsiCo reported Q3 results before the open that beat estimates (core EPS $2.34 vs $2.30, revenue $25.27B vs $24.97B) and the stock rose about 3.7%, closing above the 125 cap, even as it trimmed its full-year profit outlook. PEP finished the day up 3.7%, while SPY was down 0.4%.

Education only, not advice. The same levels go to everyone. Past results don't predict future results.

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This week: 41 hits / N=46 · 5 misses · 0 pushes · graded on the regular-session close. Past results don't predict future results.