Miss write-up

HUM support zone 450 missed

Fri Oct 9, 2026. Closed 431.80, 18.20 under the level.

← HUM record · Every graded call

Support zone450
Regular close431.8
Missed by18.20 (4.0%)
ResultMiss

Support zone: close above is a hit. Close on the level is a push. Graded on the regular-session close.

The level

A support zone is a price below the market where a large amount of options positioning sits. The idea is that this positioning can slow a move down there, so the test is simple: does the stock close above it? When it was posted at 10:10 ET, HUM traded at 452.12, 0.5% above the support zone. On the same map, the next level above was 460 and the next level below was 440. See the original post.

Into the close

Price traded through the support zone during the session (first 5-minute close on the wrong side at 9:30 AM ET), with a low of 430.27 and a high of 451.00. In the last hour price moved down 3.43, from 435.30 to 431.87.

Intraday, Oct 9
428.61434.62440.63446.65452.66Support zone 4509:3012:004:00
Close vs level

The regular-session close was 431.80, 18.20 (4.04%) under the support zone at 450. Under the rule (support zone: close above is a hit), that is a miss.

Context that day

Humana gapped up on CMS's 2027 Medicare Advantage star ratings (about 95% of members in 4-star-or-better plans, up from about 20%) and briefly traded above 450, then faded through the day and closed well under the 450 support zone while still up sharply on the day. HUM finished the day up 11.6%, while SPY was up 0.6%.

Education only, not advice. The same levels go to everyone. Past results don't predict future results.

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This week: 41 hits / N=46 · 5 misses · 0 pushes · graded on the regular-session close. Past results don't predict future results.