Hit write-up

COIN cap 187.5 hit

Wed Oct 7, 2026. Closed 178.52, 8.98 under the level.

← COIN record · Every graded call

Cap187.5
Regular close178.52
Margin8.98 (4.8%)
ResultHit

Cap: close under is a hit. Close on the level is a push. Graded on the regular-session close.

The level

A cap is a price above the market where a large amount of options positioning sits. The idea is that this positioning can slow a move up there, so the test is simple: does the stock close under it? When it was posted at 08:44 ET, COIN traded at 179.96, 4.0% below the cap. On the same map, the next level above was 195 and the next level below was 170. See the original post.

Into the close

Price never closed a 5-minute bar on the wrong side of the cap. Its closest approach was 6.89 away (180.61); the session range was 177.30 to 180.61. In the last hour price moved up 0.49, from 178.90 to 179.39.

Intraday, Oct 7
176.48179.44182.4185.36188.32Cap 187.59:3012:004:00
Close vs level

The regular-session close was 178.52, 8.98 (4.79%) under the cap at 187.5. Under the rule (cap: close under is a hit), that is a hit.

Context that day

Crypto-linked stocks fell as Bitcoin and Ethereum slid. COIN finished the day down 3.9%, while SPY was down 0.2%.

Education only, not advice. The same levels go to everyone. Past results don't predict future results.

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This week: 41 hits / N=46 · 5 misses · 0 pushes · graded on the regular-session close. Past results don't predict future results.