Hit write-up

NVDA cap 235 hit

Fri Oct 9, 2026. Closed 229.34, 5.66 under the level.

← NVDA record · Every graded call

Cap235
Regular close229.34
Margin5.66 (2.4%)
ResultHit

Cap: close under is a hit. Close on the level is a push. Graded on the regular-session close.

The level

A cap is a price above the market where a large amount of options positioning sits. The idea is that this positioning can slow a move up there, so the test is simple: does the stock close under it? When it was posted at 19:08 ET, NVDA traded at 230.57, 1.9% below the cap. On the same map, the next level above was 240 and the next level below was 230. See the original post.

Into the close

Price never closed a 5-minute bar on the wrong side of the cap. Its closest approach was 3.15 away (231.85); the session range was 229.27 to 231.85. In the last hour price moved down 0.38, from 229.66 to 229.28.

Intraday, Oct 9
228.82230.48232.14233.8235.46Cap 2359:3012:004:00
Close vs level

The regular-session close was 229.34, 5.66 (2.41%) under the cap at 235. Under the rule (cap: close under is a hit), that is a hit.

Context that day

NVDA finished the day down 0.5%, while SPY was up 0.6%. We found no single clear company-specific catalyst for the day in our notes.

Education only, not advice. The same levels go to everyone. Past results don't predict future results.

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This week: 41 hits / N=46 · 5 misses · 0 pushes · graded on the regular-session close. Past results don't predict future results.