Miss write-up

ASTS cap 50 missed

Fri Oct 9, 2026. Closed 50.97, 0.97 over the level.

← ASTS record · Every graded call

Cap50
Regular close50.97
Missed by0.97 (1.9%)
ResultMiss

Cap: close under is a hit. Close on the level is a push. Graded on the regular-session close.

The level

A cap is a price above the market where a large amount of options positioning sits. The idea is that this positioning can slow a move up there, so the test is simple: does the stock close under it? When it was posted at 14:11 ET, ASTS traded at 48.49, 3.0% below the cap. On the same map, the next level above was 55 and the next level below was 45. See the original post.

Into the close

Price traded through the cap during the session (first 5-minute close on the wrong side at 9:30 AM ET), with a low of 47.73 and a high of 53.77. In the last hour price moved up 1.13, from 49.83 to 50.97.

Intraday, Oct 9
47.254950.7552.554.25Cap 509:3012:004:00
Close vs level

The regular-session close was 50.97, 0.97 (1.94%) above the cap at 50. Under the rule (cap: close under is a hit), that is a miss.

Context that day

AST SpaceMobile fell after SpaceX agreed to acquire Grain Management's nationwide 800 MHz spectrum, an asset AST had pursued. It came off the session low of about 47.6 and closed just above the 50 cap. ASTS finished the day down 10.5%, while SPY was up 0.6%.

Education only, not advice. The same levels go to everyone. Past results don't predict future results.

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This week: 41 hits / N=46 · 5 misses · 0 pushes · graded on the regular-session close. Past results don't predict future results.