Plain rules. Every miss stays up.

The rules, one line each

• Cap (heavy call positioning above price): a hit if SPY or QQQ closes under it. Closes above it: miss.
• Floor (heavy put positioning below price): a hit if it closes above it. Closes under it: miss. Graded from Mon Oct 19, 2026.
• Support zone (older calls, before Oct 7): a hit if the close was above it.
• Push: the close lands exactly on the level, to the cent. Not a hit, not a miss.
• We grade on the 4:00 PM ET regular-session close. Intraday wicks don't count either way.
• Only the level posted in the morning, before the open, counts. Replies, previews and status updates never count.

What we never do

• We never delete a miss or edit a level after it's posted. Every miss has its own page.
• We never add old floors after the fact. Floors before Oct 19 weren't graded, so they aren't in the count.
• Corrections only happen for a documented data error, and they're labeled.

An honest note on hit rates

A level far from price is easy to "hit". If a cap or floor almost never gets touched, it's too wide to be useful, and a high hit rate alone doesn't prove much. That's why we also publish the expected move each day (what the options market prices for the range), so you can see how close each level sat to where price could realistically go. Judge the record with that in mind.

Levels map where options positioning is stacked. They don't predict price, and they're the same for everyone. Education only, not advice.

See every graded call